The probability of a Yahtzee for any three-roll turn is about .04603 (347897/7558272) or roughly 1 in 22 attempts. The probability of a specific Yahtzee (e.g., all ones) is about .013272 (6240321451/470184984576). This is about 1.3% or about 1 in 75 attempts. The chances differ slightly as the game goes on. For a perfect game, you need to roll five 6's four times (sixes, 3/kind, 4/kind, and chance). As you use up the 3's, 2's, etc, the probability of rolling what you need is somewhere between about 1.3% and 4.4%. I'm not goingto bother figuring out the numbers for a perfect score because it's much more daunting of a task than I originally thought. However, you get 13 rolls. You can throw one of them away because in my scenario, you are putting a zero in the "yahtzee" column. So...
The probability of a player rolling 12 Yahtzees in a game is about 4.16261E-18, or .00000000000000000416261. The chances get slimmer as you factor in needs of specific numbers, full houses, straights...but in for all intensive purposes, having a 1-in 2.40234E+17 pretty much says impossible. 1 in 240,234,000,000,000,000. QUADRILLION. I average about 3 minutes per game on the computer...longer if I do actual dice and cup. But we'll say 3 minutes. that's roughly 720,702,000,000,000,000 minutes.
Divided by 60.
12,001,700,000,000,000 hours
Divided by 24.
500,488,000,000,000 days.
Divided by 365.25
1,370,260,000,000 years.
To put THIS is perspective, most current research says the universe is between 13.5 and 14 billion years old. We'll say 13.7026 billion for math's sake (and because the universe is ruled by Yahtzee). 1,370,260,000,000 divided by 13,702,600,000 = 100. If someone were playing Yahtzee since most scientists believe our Universe was created, that someone would be just about 1% of the way through his time towards a perfect score of 325. This not even including error for "brain farts" and tactics and whatnot. My little story about a lucky day? I think you'd have to throw in a few more "damn near impossible" things to make it truly reflect the numbers we're talking about. When I first started on this quest (looking at clock, holy shit!) an hour and a half ago, I had no idea the numbers would be this significant. I feel like I've accomplished something. But I still can't sleep.
100 times the age of the universe. Playing yahtzee. This doesn't even take into account time to eat, sleep, etc. Say 1/3 of your time is spent eating, sleeping, hygeine, etc...and assuming you do NOTHING else except play yahtzee, this means 300 times the ago of the universe. I don't know which is harder for me to wrap my head around. That, or a googolplex (google it, it's really incredible. If you could use one ATOM to write a digit on both sides of a piece of paper that was 1 atom thick, there would not be enough space in the universe, or several universes, to write a googolplex). And there are even LARGER numbers out there. What's the point of them? Google them to find out. I'm going to sleep.
Shit. My alarm clock is going to buzz in an hour. Yahtzee!
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